October 4, 2025: Actually, the North Korean soldiers have not entered Ukraine yet, but according to Ukrainian intelligence sources, they are planning to cross the border soon. Meanwhile, North Korea is sending 30,000 more troops, some of them support forces but most of them trained for combat. These reinforcements are supposed to arrive in three or four months. Up until now, the largest North Korean contribution has been munitions. This includes millions of artillery shells, hundreds of ballistic missiles, and other items the Russian military desperately needs. Most of the first 12,000 North Korean troops have been killed or wounded. None of the 4,000 dead are returning to service, and an unknown number of the wounded were permanently disabled by their wounds.

Russia has paid a high price for this assistance, by giving North Korea technical assistance in improving its nuclear weapons, missiles, and the expanding North Korean submarine fleet. This would be disrupted if the war ended by the end of the year. The Russian army and economy are in bad shape. In that case, Russia would be in debt to North Korea, and that would have a long-term impact on the Russian and North Korean armed forces. One of the things North Korea received for its help was a mutual defense treaty with Russia. It’s unclear if this means Russia would be obliged to aid North Korea if it revived the Korean War, or made serious moves to do so.

This all began at the end of 2024, when 12,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia and, after a short amount of additional training, were sent to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. The North Koreans were first seen in combat during December. The Ukrainian forces facing them estimate that the North Koreans have suffered about 30 percent casualties initially because the Russians were using their Korean troops for frontal assaults. There were few Russian soldiers available for such costly attacks. Most remaining Russian troops were on the defensive. Ukraine had developed attack tactics that relied on self-propelled machine guns and other close-combat weapons, as well as robotic vehicles to clear minefields and even for use in combat. In one case, some Russian troops surrendered to their robot opponents. This was a first, but the Russians learned from it and may eventually copy this technology because they urgently need more soldiers and ammunition.

A year ago, North Korea announced it would send as many soldiers to Ukraine as Russia requires. North Korea has worked with Russia in the past but never to the extent that North Korean soldiers were sent to fight for Russia in Ukraine. In return, Russia finally agreed to upgrade North Korean strategic weapons systems.

In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a Strategic Partnership treaty that obliged each nation to assist the other in wartime. In peacetime, the two nations will supply mutual aid in military matters. North Korea wanted assistance in perfecting and upgrading its nuclear weapons and launch platforms, including a modern SSBN. This is a nuclear-powered submarine carrying a dozen or so nuclear warheads. Russia has such submarines, but North Korea does not, and has been trying to develop them on its own.

When the North Korean munitions arrived in Ukraine and Russian troops began using the shells, they noted two things. First, North Korean ammunition was unreliable and inaccurate. Worse, North Korean shells could also be dangerous to use. Some of them detonated after leaving the gun barrel, and eventually some detonated while inside the barrel. At this point, the Russians stopped using the North Korean shells, which had become more dangerous for their Russian users than to the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the North Korean munitions factories were working overtime to produce new shells to replace the older ones sold to the Russians. This was a good deal for North Korea because they sold their older artillery munitions to Russia and are now replacing them with newly manufactured shells—at least the ones not sold to Russia.

The need for the North Korean treaty stems from the fact that Russian troops in Ukraine have suffered such high losses since early 2022 that the Russian army has run out of soldiers. Russia has lost over a million killed or disabled fighting in Ukraine. Many of the wounded suffered further when they found that the Russian medical system was unable to adequately treat them. This led to many thousands of desertions and millions of military-age men leaving the country.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin thought the Ukraine War would be over in days or weeks. It wasn’t, and it is now in its fourth year. Unlike World War II, the Russians invaded Ukraine and are losing. Russia’s ability to continue the war is clearly less than Ukraine’s, provided NATO and U.S. support continues. The Russian government pays families of dead soldiers tens of thousands of dollars. For families in rural areas, where most of the dead soldiers came from, this amount of cash is life-changing. Soldiers who were badly wounded in Ukraine get lesser amounts but still enough to greatly improve their lives. Russia is spending nearly 10 percent of the government budget on these payments, and that has reduced the anger over dead or disabled soldiers to manageable levels. These billions, plus even more spent on continuing the war, have forced the government to go into debt. North Korea also compensates the families of North Korean soldiers killed in Ukraine, but not with cash. North Korean families receive economic assistance, new housing, or medical treatments most North Koreans cannot afford.