November 3, 2025: The new American heavy bomber, the B-21 is an 81-ton, twin engine aircraft that can carry nine tons of bombs and missiles. It is 16 meters long with a 40 meter wingspan. B-21s will be based in the United States. Unrefueled range is 4,000 kilometers and with inflight refueling B-21s can reach targets anywhere in the world. Current estimates are that it will cost close to a billion dollars per aircraft. The air force wants at least a hundred B-21s, but if costs escalate Congress will, as it did with the B-1 and B-2, reduce the number of B-21s they will pay for. To make this work, the air force plans to replace the 45 1980s B-1s and 19 1990s B-2 bombers and, eventually, the 75 B-52s that have been flying since the 1950s.

So far, the three test aircraft have all flown successfully and demonstrated that its stealth and advanced electron systems work as claimed. If the air force can keep costs under control and get the B-21 into service by 2027 or no later than 2030. The first production orders were recently issued.

Three years ago the U.S. Air Force believed it had found a replacement for the B-52 bomber; the B-21. At the time there were 76 B-52H aircraft still in service and they are expected to serve into the 2050s because the BUFF/Big, Ugly Fat Fellow just works. The B-21 was described as cheaper and more capable than the similar B-2. As a stealth aircraft it still has the expensive and time-consuming maintenance issues associated with its stealth features. B-21 development began in 2014 and it cost over $200 billion to develop. Current estimates are that the B-21 will cost about $700 billion to develop.

By 2022 one B-21 prototype was built and being prepared for its first flight, which took place in late 2023. Seven more B-21s are under construction and it is expected to enter service in 2027. The air force wants to buy at least a hundred B-21s but that will depend on how well the first B-21s perform. That particularly includes maintenance of its stealth coating purportedly costing much less than the B-2’s. Excessive costs and poor performance are what caused the B-2 to have its production reduced from a hundred to only 21 aircraft. One of these was lost in an accident, leaving only 20 operational. The B-2 entered service in 1997 and production ceased three years later. The aircraft that crashed was valued at $1.4 billion. The 170-ton B-2 has four engines and a crew of two. It can carry up to 23 tons of bombs although the usual bomb load is 18 tons or less. The B-2 usually carries guided bombs or missiles. Max speed is subsonic, about 1,000 kilometers an hour, while cruising speed is 900 kilometers an h0ur,

The B-21 is smaller than the B-2 but has superior stealth capabilities and a similar bombload. The primary justification for the B-21 is that it is hopefully more affordable than the B-2 with much superior defensive and offensive electronics. These are required for the B-21 to operate inside the air defenses of near-peer opponents. The only one of these high-tech foes is China. Russia was, until the current Ukraine War, believed to be another formidable target for American air power. That may still be true on paper but the Ukrainians demonstrated the many flaws of Russian air power.

Chinese capabilities can also be overestimated. Its current newest top-line fighter, the J-20, has visible external rivets while the last US fighter with rivets was the F-14 dropped from service in 2014. So far the Chinese have learned from Russian mistakes and developed better solutions. Despite that, Chinese leaders remind their air force and air defense personnel that better may not be enough against Western technology. That attitude makes the Chinese potentially more formidable than foreign nations believe.

The U.S. Air Force has maintained air dominance since World War II with superior tech and more capable personnel. That has been useful when efforts to develop new tech aircraft or weapons fail because of development problems or cost-overruns. Often it is a combination of both and Congress pulls the plug. It’s been that way since World War II and the air force has always had an older, proven system to substitute for the failed technology. When it comes to bombers, the B-52 has been the successful substitute for over half a century. This is a reality that is understood in the air force but not publicized. What the air force does give some publicity to is new tech regularly being added to B-52s. This keeps these ancient bombers effective and relevant, especially a substitute for newer but less effective bomber designs. Sometimes these announcements simply confirm the obvious.